Risk Assessment
Conflict Exposure and Agricultural Diversification in Ghana
Integrating water access, climate stress, and household resilience into one programming lens.
Measuring Risk to Build Resilience. Assessments of climate, conflict, and resource risk that help institutions design stronger mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Resilience programming separated irrigation investments from domestic water access. The program needed an integrated vulnerability lens at community scale.
Conflict exposure is a growing concern in parts of Ghana and West Africa, where localized disputes and broader instability disrupt agricultural livelihoods. Farmers exposed to conflict often face displacement, loss of assets, and reduced access to markets. Diversification — the practice of spreading production across multiple crops — is one strategy households use to mitigate risk. This study examines how conflict exposure influences agricultural diversification, situating conflict as both a driver and constraint of household resilience. The broader challenge is that conflict reshapes incentives and opportunities. Some households diversify to reduce vulnerability, while others are forced into subsistence strategies due to insecurity. Understanding these dynamics is critical for designing policies that support resilience in conflict-prone areas. This research situates diversification within the broader discourse on risk management and household welfare.
Conflict exposure is a powerful driver of diversification, shaping both risks and opportunities for households.
Martey, E., et al
2025
Background
Advancing through the data
Conflict exposure is a growing concern in parts of Ghana and West Africa, where localized disputes and broader instability disrupt agricultural livelihoods. Farmers exposed to conflict often face displacement, loss of assets, and reduced access to markets. Diversification — the practice of spreading production across multiple crops — is one strategy households use to mitigate risk. This study examines how conflict exposure influences agricultural diversification, situating conflict as both a driver and constraint of household resilience. The broader challenge is that conflict reshapes incentives and opportunities. Some households diversify to reduce vulnerability, while others are forced into subsistence strategies due to insecurity. Understanding these dynamics is critical for designing policies that support resilience in conflict-prone areas. This research situates diversification within the broader discourse on risk management and household welfare.
Research Approach
Household survey data was collected across conflict-affected and non-affected regions. Econometric models were applied to measure the impact of conflict exposure on diversification indices, controlling for income, demographics, and location. Qualitative interviews provided insights into household coping strategies, including shifts in crop choice and reliance on subsistence farming. Comparative analysis was conducted to capture differences between conflict-exposed and stable households. This dual approach ensured findings were both statistically rigorous and contextually grounded.
Key findings from this study include:
- Conflict exposure reduced diversification in some households.
- Others diversified as a risk mitigation strategy.
- Conflict reshaped production systems and household welfare.
Implications
A strategic lens for organizations and policymakers
Policymakers should design conflict-sensitive agricultural policies.
Organizations can support diversification programs in conflict-prone areas.
Businesses must adapt supply chains to fragile contexts.
For organizations, this research informs resilience programming. For policymakers, it highlights the need for conflict-sensitive strategies. For businesses, it shows how diversification can stabilize supply chains.
Conflict exposure is a powerful driver of diversification, shaping both risks and opportunities for households.
Martey, E., et al, 2025
